Pennsylvania Bulletin

PA Bulletin, Doc. No. 98-881

THE GOVERNOR

Pennsylvania State Data Center; Pennsylvania Population Projections; Notice of Public Review

[28 Pa.B. 2574]

   The Pennsylvania State Data Center and the Population Research Institute at the Pennsylvania State University consulting with a Statewide advisory committee comprised of State agencies, regional planning agencies and academic representatives have produced preliminary State and county population projections for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. These preliminary projections are detailed by age, sex and race (for counties with a 1990 non-white population over 5,000). Presented as follows are county totals from the 1990 Census and projections for 2000 to 2020.

   The method of projection is a cohort-component demographic projection model. That is, the base population is survived 5 years in each iteration of the projection cycle, and births are projected by applying fertility rates to survived females of childbearing age to determine the population due to natural increase. The survived population for each group is then adjusted for projected net migration by age-sex-race.

   The detailed population projections and working papers relating to assumptions are on file and may be inspected and arrangements made for copying at the Pennsylvania State Data Center as indicated.

   Persons wishing to comment on these preliminary population projections are invited to submit a statement to the Pennsylvania State Data Center, Penn State Harrisburg, E310 Olmsted Building, 777 W. Harrisburg Pike, Middletown, PA 17057, (717) 948-6427, within 30 days from the date of this public notice. All comments received within this 30-day period will be considered in the formulation of the final preliminary population projections. All responses should include the name, address and telephone number of the writer and a concise statement to inform the Pennsylvania State Data Center of the exact basis of any comment and the relevant facts upon which it is based.

Preliminary Pennsylvania Population Projections by County

1990--2020

% % %

Census Projection Projection Projection Change Change Change

April 1, July 1, July 1, July 1, 1990-- 2000-- 2010--

1990 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020

Pennsylvania 11,882,842 12,241,488 12,407,523 12,569,017 3.0 1.4 1.3

Adams 78,274 89,143 97,059 103,475 13.9 8.9 6.6

Allegheny 1,336,449 1,265,184 1,187,725 1,130,284 -5.3 -6.1 -4.8

Armstrong 73,478 68,829 64,518 61,003 -6.3 -6.3 -5.4

Beaver 186,093 177,941 168,643 160,838 -4.4 -5.2 -4.6

Bedford 47,919 50,143 52,327 54,402 4.6 4.4 4.0

Berks 336,523 368,202 391,231 414,621 9.4 6.3 6.0

Blair 130,542 128,565 126,884 125,049 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4

Bradford 60,967 65,160 69,431 74,199 6.9 6.6 6.9

Bucks 541,174 606,021 634,158 645,042 12.0 4.6 1.7

Butler 152,013 163,031 171,066 177,837 7.2 4.9 4.0

Cambria 163,062 151,785 141,545 132,266 -6.9 -6.7 -6.6

Cameron 5,913 5,577 5,387 5,333 -5.7 -3.4 -1.0

Carbon 56,846 62,382 64,306 64,599 9.7 3.1 0.5

Centre 124,812 137,704 147,065 151,010 10.3 6.8 2.7

Chester 376,396 436,761 477,297 510,219 16.0 9.3 6.9

Clarion 41,699 41,997 41,762 40,781 0.7 -0.6 -2.3

Clearfield 78,097 75,965 73,427 70,760 -2.7 -3.3 -3.6

Clinton 37,182 38,170 39,104 39,839 2.7 2.4 1.9

Columbia 63,202 62,546 61,280 59,798 -1.0 -2.0 -2.4

Crawford 86,170 88,366 90,315 93,048 2.5 2.2 3.0

Cumberland 195,257 225,774 249,813 269,375 15.6 10.6 7.8

Dauphin 237,813 254,948 264,378 273,483 7.2 3.7 3.4

Delaware 547,651 556,623 554,598 553,900 1.6 -0.4 -0.1

Elk 34,878 33,070 31,207 30,158 -5.2 -5.6 -3.4

Erie 275,572 283,851 288,541 292,252 3.0 1.7 1.3

Fayette 145,351 142,010 137,761 134,499 -2.3 -3.0 -2.4

Forest 4,802 5,051 5,116 5,158 5.2 1.3 0.8

Franklin 121,082 128,644 131,561 133,312 6.2 2.3 1.3

Fulton 13,837 15,092 15,996 16,565 9.1 6.0 3.6

Greene 39,550 41,058 41,724 42,484 3.8 1.6 1.8

Huntingdon 44,164 46,876 48,299 48,989 6.1 3.0 1.4

Indiana 89,994 91,628 93,589 93,834 1.8 2.1 0.3

Jefferson 46,083 43,845 42,061 40,533 -4.9 -4.1 -3.6

Juniata 20,625 20,868 21,006 21,058 1.2 0.7 0.2

Lackawanna 219,097 215,218 211,356 209,111 -1.8 -1.8 -1.1

Lancaster 422,822 486,046 540,823 597,975 15.0 11.3 10.6

Lawrence 96,246 91,028 86,452 83,259 -5.4 -5.0 -3.7

Lebanon 113,744 122,361 126,489 129,742 7.6 3.4 2.6

Lehigh 291,130 311,521 320,249 327,295 7.0 2.8 2.2

Luzerne 328,149 330,718 324,516 317,870 0.8 -1.9 -2.0

Lycoming 118,710 122,915 124,102 124,149 3.5 1.0 0.0

McKean 47,131 47,856 47,411 47,141 1.5 -0.9 -0.6

Mercer 121,003 122,293 123,152 124,609 1.1 0.7 1.2

Mifflin 46,197 46,356 45,680 45,209 0.3 -1.5 -1.0

Monroe 95,709 134,683 172,172 212,009 40.7 27.8 23.1

Montgomery 678,193 699,475 704,146 711,734 3.1 0.7 1.1

Montour 17,735 19,081 19,765 20,555 7.6 3.6 4.0

Northampton 247,105 270,230 286,983 303,586 9.4 6.2 5.8

Northumberland 96,771 96,511 94,338 92,835 -0.3 -2.3 -1.6

Perry 41,172 47,967 52,785 55,784 16.5 10.0 5.7

Philadelphia 1,585,577 1,511,074 1,473,330 1,451,337 -4.7 -2.5 -1.5

Pike 27,966 43,832 60,059 79,170 56.7 37.0 31.8

Potter 16,717 15,899 15,276 14,852 -4.9 -3.9 -2.8

Schuylkill 152,585 152,271 148,367 145,994 -0.2 -2.6 -1.6

Snyder 36,680 41,817 46,208 50,081 14.0 10.5 8.4

Somerset 78,218 76,391 73,208 70,323 -2.3 -4.2 -3.9

Sullivan 6,104 6,766 7,156 7,457 10.8 5.8 4.2

Susquehanna 40,380 44,257 45,967 47,565 9.6 3.9 3.5

Tioga 41,126 42,256 43,060 43,617 2.7 1.9 1.3

Union 36,176 41,010 44,440 47,465 13.4 8.4 6.8

Venango 59,381 55,943 53,140 50,852 -5.8 -5.0 -4.3

Warren 45,049 42,486 40,278 38,306 -5.7 -5.2 -4.9

Washington 204,584 201,414 196,872 191,085 -1.5 -2.3 -2.9

Wayne 39,944 46,392 49,748 51,333 16.1 7.2 3.2

Westmoreland 370,321 368,354 361,495 353,578 -0.5 -1.9 -2.2

Wyoming 28,076 32,210 35,187 37,202 14.7 9.2 5.7

York 339,574 382,047 403,133 415,934 12.5 5.5 3.2



CHARLES ZOGBY,
Director
Governor's Policy Office

[Pa.B. Doc. No. 98-881. Filed for public inspection June 5, 1998, 9:00 a.m.]

[28 Pa.B. 2576]

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					%	%	%
	Census	Projection	Projection	Projection	Change	Change	Change
	April 1,	July 1,	July 1,	July 1,	1990--	2000--	2010--
	1990	2000	2010	2020	2000	2010	2020

Pennsylvania	11,882,842	12,241,488	12,407,523	12,569,017	3.0	1.4	1.3

Adams	78,274	89,143	97,059	103,475	13.9	8.9	6.6
Allegheny	1,336,449	1,265,184	1,187,725	1,130,284	-5.3	-6.1	-4.8
Armstrong	73,478	68,829	64,518	61,003	-6.3	-6.3	-5.4
Beaver	186,093	177,941	168,643	160,838	-4.4	-5.2	-4.6
Bedford	47,919	50,143	52,327	54,402	4.6	4.4	4.0

Berks	336,523	368,202	391,231	414,621	9.4	6.3	6.0
Blair	130,542	128,565	126,884	125,049	-1.5	-1.3	-1.4
Bradford	60,967	65,160	69,431	74,199	6.9	6.6	6.9
Bucks	541,174	606,021	634,158	645,042	12.0	4.6	1.7
Butler	152,013	163,031	171,066	177,837	7.2	4.9	4.0

Cambria	163,062	151,785	141,545	132,266	-6.9	-6.7	-6.6
Cameron	5,913	5,577	5,387	5,333	-5.7	-3.4	-1.0
Carbon	56,846	62,382	64,306	64,599	9.7	3.1	0.5
Centre	124,812	137,704	147,065	151,010	10.3	6.8	2.7
Chester	376,396	436,761	477,297	510,219	16.0	9.3	6.9

Clarion	41,699	41,997	41,762	40,781	0.7	-0.6	-2.3
Clearfield	78,097	75,965	73,427	70,760	-2.7	-3.3	-3.6
Clinton	37,182	38,170	39,104	39,839	2.7	2.4	1.9
Columbia	63,202	62,546	61,280	59,798	-1.0	-2.0	-2.4
Crawford	86,170	88,366	90,315	93,048	2.5	2.2	3.0

Cumberland	195,257	225,774	249,813	269,375	15.6	10.6	7.8
Dauphin	237,813	254,948	264,378	273,483	7.2	3.7	3.4
Delaware	547,651	556,623	554,598	553,900	1.6	-0.4	-0.1
Elk	34,878	33,070	31,207	30,158	-5.2	-5.6	-3.4
Erie	275,572	283,851	288,541	292,252	3.0	1.7	1.3

Fayette	145,351	142,010	137,761	134,499	-2.3	-3.0	-2.4
Forest	4,802	5,051	5,116	5,158	5.2	1.3	0.8
Franklin	121,082	128,644	131,561	133,312	6.2	2.3	1.3
Fulton	13,837	15,092	15,996	16,565	9.1	6.0	3.6
Greene	39,550	41,058	41,724	42,484	3.8	1.6	1.8

Huntingdon	44,164	46,876	48,299	48,989	6.1	3.0	1.4
Indiana	89,994	91,628	93,589	93,834	1.8	2.1	0.3
Jefferson	46,083	43,845	42,061	40,533	-4.9	-4.1	-3.6
Juniata	20,625	20,868	21,006	21,058	1.2	0.7	0.2
Lackawanna	219,097	215,218	211,356	209,111	-1.8	-1.8	-1.1

Lancaster	422,822	486,046	540,823	597,975	15.0	11.3	10.6
Lawrence	96,246	91,028	86,452	83,259	-5.4	-5.0	-3.7
Lebanon	113,744	122,361	126,489	129,742	7.6	3.4	2.6

Lehigh	291,130	311,521	320,249	327,295	7.0	2.8	2.2
Luzerne	328,149	330,718	324,516	317,870	0.8	-1.9	-2.0
Lycoming	118,710	122,915	124,102	124,149	3.5	1.0	0.0
McKean	47,131	47,856	47,411	47,141	1.5	-0.9	-0.6
Mercer	121,003	122,293	123,152	124,609	1.1	0.7	1.2

Mifflin	46,197	46,356	45,680	45,209	0.3	-1.5	-1.0
Monroe	95,709	134,683	172,172	212,009	40.7	27.8	23.1
Montgomery	678,193	699,475	704,146	711,734	3.1	0.7	1.1
Montour	17,735	19,081	19,765	20,555	7.6	3.6	4.0
Northampton	247,105	270,230	286,983	303,586	9.4	6.2	5.8

Northumberland	96,771	96,511	94,338	92,835	-0.3	-2.3	-1.6
Perry	41,172	47,967	52,785	55,784	16.5	10.0	5.7
Philadelphia	1,585,577	1,511,074	1,473,330	1,451,337	-4.7	-2.5	-1.5
Pike	27,966	43,832	60,059	79,170	56.7	37.0	31.8
Potter	16,717	15,899	15,276	14,852	-4.9	-3.9	-2.8

Schuylkill	152,585	152,271	148,367	145,994	-0.2	-2.6	-1.6
Snyder	36,680	41,817	46,208	50,081	14.0	10.5	8.4
Somerset	78,218	76,391	73,208	70,323	-2.3	-4.2	-3.9
Sullivan	6,104	6,766	7,156	7,457	10.8	5.8	4.2
Susquehanna	40,380	44,257	45,967	47,565	9.6	3.9	3.5

Tioga	41,126	42,256	43,060	43,617	2.7	1.9	1.3
Union	36,176	41,010	44,440	47,465	13.4	8.4	6.8
Venango	59,381	55,943	53,140	50,852	-5.8	-5.0	-4.3
Warren	45,049	42,486	40,278	38,306	-5.7	-5.2	-4.9
Washington	204,584	201,414	196,872	191,085	-1.5	-2.3	-2.9

Wayne	39,944	46,392	49,748	51,333	16.1	7.2	3.2
Westmoreland	370,321	368,354	361,495	353,578	-0.5	-1.9	-2.2
Wyoming	28,076	32,210	35,187	37,202	14.7	9.2	5.7
York	339,574	382,047	403,133	415,934	12.5	5.5	3.2