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PA Bulletin, Doc. No. 08-524

NOTICES

GOVERNOR'S OFFICE

Pennsylvania State Data Center; Pennsylvania Population Projections; Public Review

[38 Pa.B. 1415]
[Saturday, March 22, 2008]

   The Pennsylvania State Data Center at the Pennsylvania State University consulting with a Statewide advisory committee comprised of State agencies, regional planning agencies and academic representatives have produced preliminary State and county population projections for the Commonwealth. These preliminary projections are detailed by age, sex and race (race projections are only for counties with a 2,000 nonwhite population over 5,000). Presented are county totals from the 2000 Census and projections for 2010 to 2030.

   The method of projection is a cohort-component demographic projection model. That is, the base population is survived 5 years in the iteration of the projection cycle, and births are projected by applying fertility rates to survived females of childbearing age to determine the population due to natural increase. The survived population for each group is then adjusted for projected net migration by age, sex and race.

   The detailed population projections and preliminary working papers relating to assumptions are on file and may be inspected and arrangements made for copying at the Pennsylvania State Data Center as indicated.

   Persons wishing to comment on these preliminary population projections are invited to submit a statement to the Pennsylvania State Data Center, Penn State Harrisburg, Room 224 Church Hall, 777 West Harrisburg Pike, Middletown, PA 17057, (717) 948-6427, pasdc@psu.edu, within 30 days from the date of this public notice. Comments received within this 30-day period will be considered in the formulation of the final preliminary population projections. Responses should include the name, address and telephone number of the writer and a concise statement to inform the Pennsylvania State Data Center of the exact basis of any comment and the relevant facts upon which it is based.

Pennsylvania Preliminary Population Projections:
2000-2030

County
April 1, 2000 Census     July 1, 2010 Projection   July 1, 2020 Projection   July 1, 2030 Projection   % Change 2000-2010 % Change 2010-2020 % Change 2020-2030
Pennsylvania 12,281,054 12,540,197 12,870,797 13,188,930 2.1 2.6 2.5
Adams 91,292 101,592 109,533 115,044 11.3 7.8 5.0
Allegheny 1,281,666 1,212,917 1,172,399 1,135,865 -5.4 -3.3 -3.1
Armstrong 72,392 68,550 66,226 63,909-5.3 -3.4 -3.5
Beaver 181,412 168,881 158,653 148,194 -6.9 -6.1 -6.6
Bedford 49,984 51,060 51,873 52,047 2.2 1.6 0.3
Berks 373,638 412,708 451,816 493,080 10.5 9.5 9.1
Blair 129,144 121,494 114,887 107,624 -5.9 -5.4 -6.3
Bradford 62,761 60,763 59,528 58,864 -3.2 -2.0 -1.1
Bucks 597,635 644,039 674,799 699,858 7.8 4.8 3.7
Butler 174,083 191,776 206,903 221,069 10.2 7.9 6.8
Cambria 152,598 141,775 133,174 124,483 -7.1 -6.1 -6.5
Cameron 5,974 5,578 5,580 5,624 -6.6 0.0 0.8
Carbon 58,802 63,311 67,079 69,340 7.7 6.0 3.4
Centre 135,758 148,220 157,035 166,609 9.2 5.9 6.1
Chester 433,501 520,721 605,799 693,665 20.1 16.3 14.5
Clarion 41,765 39,728 38,844 38,025 -4.9 -2.2 -2.1
Clearfield 83,382 82,788 81,723 80,167 -0.7 -1.3 -1.9
Clinton 37,914 35,597 33,763 32,354 -6.1 -5.2 -4.2
Columbia 64,151 64,573 67,233 69,944 0.7 4.1 4.0
Crawford 90,366 89,421 89,728 90,294 -1.0 0.3 0.6
Cumberland 213,674 235,327 259,614 283,743 10.1 10.3 9.3
Dauphin 251,798 256,478 263,198 270,543 1.9 2.6 2.8
Delaware 550,864 554,432 568,256 585,434 0.6 2.5 3.0
Elk 35,112 31,988 28,979 26,344 -8.9 -9.4 -9.1
Erie 280,843 280,872 276,063 268,220 0.0 -1.7 -2.8
Fayette 148,644 146,007 139,730 132,290 -1.8 -4.3 -5.3
Forest 4,946 7,073 7,591 8,003 43.0 7.3 5.4
Franklin 129,313 135,959 142,014 148,990 5.1 4.5 4.9
Fulton 14,261 15,509 16,654 17,561 8.8 7.4 5.4
Greene 40,672 40,526 40,118 38,974 -0.4 -1.0 -2.9
Huntingdon 45,586 47,393 48,094 47,698 4.0 1.5 -0.8
Indiana 89,605 81,130 73,078 66,322 -9.5 -9.9 -9.2
Jefferson 45,932 44,650 43,886 42,645 -2.8 -1.7 -2.8
Juniata 22,821 24,019 24,872 25,780 5.2 3.6 3.7
Lackawanna 213,295 205,061 199,867 195,388 -3.9 -2.5 -2.2
Lancaster 470,658 499,261 527,486 554,611 6.1 5.7 5.1
Lawrence 94,643 90,110 86,378 83,593 -4.8 -4.1 -3.2
Lebanon 120,327 122,619 126,397 131,470 1.9 3.1 4.0
Lehigh 312,090 318,365 331,455 350,262 2.0 4.1 5.7
Luzerne 319,250 306,900 297,473 288,847 -3.9 -3.1 -2.9
Lycoming 120,044 116,071 113,434110,322 -3.3 -2.3 -2.7
McKean 45,936 43,811 41,701 39,832 -4.6 -4.8 -4.5
Mercer 120,293 120,266 121,711 123,311 0.0 1.2 1.3
Mifflin 46,486 46,816 46,529 45,704 0.7 -0.6 -1.8
Monroe 138,687 173,612 208,641 240,385 25.2 20.2 15.2
Montgomery 750,097 815,168 857,209 890,682 8.7 5.2 3.9
Montour 18,236 17,299 17,018 17,080 -5.1 -1.6 0.4
Northampton 267,066 288,886 313,925 338,632 8.2 8.7 7.9
Northumberland 94,556 93,363 93,121 92,481 -1.3 -0.3 -0.7
Perry 43,602 44,408 45,229 45,772 1.8 1.8 1.2
Philadelphia 1,517,550 1,450,356 1,424,801 1,411,405 -4.4 -1.8 -0.9
Pike 46,302 63,739 81,017 94,707 37.7 27.1 16.9
Potter 18,080 17,791 17,686 17,198 -1.6 -0.6 -2.8
Schuylkill 150,336 147,227 146,872 146,567 -2.1 -0.2 -0.2
Snyder 37,546 38,358 39,140 39,068 2.2 2.0 -0.2
Somerset 80,023 78,532 77,366 76,521 -1.9 -1.5 -1.1
Sullivan 6,556 6,352 6,330 6,303 -3.1-0.3 -0.4
Susquehanna 42,238 48,625 61,846 77,835 15.1 27.2 25.9
Tioga 41,373 40,424 39,864 39,760 -2.3 -1.4 -0.3
Union 41,624 46,497 50,174 52,471 11.7 7.9 4.6
Venango 57,565 55,261 52,979 50,343 -4.0 -4.1 -5.0
Warren 43,863 39,485 35,816 32,248 -10.0 -9.3 -10.0
Washington 202,897 207,043 211,884 213,590 2.0 2.3 0.8
Wayne 47,722 52,604 60,781 67,349 10.2 15.5 10.8
Westmoreland 369,993 374,729 381,868 381,722 1.3 1.9 0.0
Wyoming 28,080 26,919 24,075 20,631 -4.1 -10.6 -14.3
York 381,751 417,384452,002 484,234 9.3 8.3 7.1

Source: Pennsylvania Preliminary Population Projections
Pennsylvania State Data Center
February 2008

DONNA COOPER,   
Secretary
Governor's Office of the
Policy and Planning

[Pa.B. Doc. No. 08-524. Filed for public inspection March 21, 2008, 9:00 a.m.]


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