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PA Bulletin, Doc. No. 08-1574

THE GOVERNOR

Pennsylvania State Data Center; Pennsylvania Population Projections

[38 Pa.B. 4721]
[Saturday, August 30, 2008]

   The Pennsylvania State Data Center at the Pennsylvania State University consulting with a Statewide advisory committee comprised of State agencies, regional planning agencies and academic representatives have produced State and county population projections for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. These projections are detailed by age, sex and race (race projections are only for counties with a 2,000 nonwhite population over 10,000). Presented as follows are county totals from the 2000 Census and projections for 2010 to 2030.

   The method of projection is a cohort-component demographic projection model. That is, the base population is survived 5 years in the iteration of the projection cycle, and births are projected by applying fertility rates to survived females of childbearing age to determine the population due to natural increase. The survived population for each group is then adjusted for projected net migration by age-sex-race.

   For additional information on the population projections contact the Pennsylvania State Data Center, Penn State Harrisburg, Room 224, Church Hall, 777 West Harrisburg Pike, Middletown, PA 17057, (717) 948-6427, pasdc@psu.edu.

Pennsylvania Population Projections: 2000-2030

April 1, 2000July 1, 2010 July 1, 2020 July 1, 2030 % Change % Change % Change
County
Census    Projection   Projection   Projection   2000-2010 2000-2020 2000-2030
Pennsylvania 12,281,054 12,540,718 12,871,823 13,190,400 2.1 4.8 7.4
Adams 91,292 101,426 109,237 114,689 11.1 19.7 25.6
Allegheny 1,281,666 1,210,748 1,169,207 1,132,736 -5.5 -8.8 -11.6
Armstrong 72,392 68,439 66,054 63,736 -5.5 -8.8 -12.0
Beaver 181,412 168,593 158,212 147,744 -7.1 -12.8 -18.6
Bedford 49,984 50,988 51,751 51,926 2.0 3.5 3.9
Berks 373,638 412,053 450,718 491,914 10.3 20.6 31.7
Blair 129,144 121,278 114,559 107,272 -6.1 -11.3 -16.9
Bradford 62,761 60,664 59,359 58,680 -3.3 -5.4 -6.5
Bucks 597,635 643,095 673,124 697,961 7.6 12.6 16.8
Butler 174,083 191,471 206,380 220,496 10.0 18.6 26.7
Cambria 152,598 141,528 132,810 124,101 -7.3 -13.0 -18.7
Cameron 5,974 5,570 5,569 5,612 -6.8 -6.8 -6.1
Carbon 58,802 63,170 66,843 69,098 7.4 13.7 17.5
Centre 135,758 147,935 156,620 166,148 9.0 15.4 22.4
Chester 433,501 519,979 604,385 692,054 19.9 39.4 59.6
Clarion 41,765 39,662 38,726 37,895 -5.0 -7.3 -9.3
Clearfield 83,382 82,641 81,487 79,890 -0.9 -2.3 -4.2
Clinton 37,91435,540 33,669 32,263 -6.3 -11.2 -14.9
Columbia 64,151 64,454 67,053 69,765 0.5 4.5 8.8
Crawford 90,366 89,281 89,515 90,088 -1.2 -0.9 -0.3
Cumberland 213,674 234,902 258,880 282,9219.9 21.2 32.4
Dauphin 251,798 256,070 262,550 269,855 1.7 4.3 7.2
Delaware 550,864 553,502 566,788 583,942 0.5 2.9 6.0
Elk 35,112 31,935 28,909 26,269 -9.0 -17.7 -25.2
Erie 280,843 280,397 275,355 267,538 -0.2 -2.0 -4.7
Fayette 148,644 145,762 139,362 131,874 -1.9 -6.2 -11.3
Forest 4,946 7,060 7,579 7,999 42.7 53.2 61.7
Franklin 129,313 135,740 141,656 148,596 5.0 9.5 14.9
Fulton 14,261 15,480 16,603 17,506 8.5 16.4 22.8
Greene 40,672 40,460 40,018 38,857 -0.5 -1.6 -4.5
Huntingdon 45,586 47,322 47,974 47,564 3.8 5.2 4.3
Indiana 89,605 81,006 72,876 66,095 -9.6 -18.7 -26.2
Jefferson 45,932 44,577 43,775 42,529 -3.0 -4.7 -7.4
Juniata 22,821 23,977 24,798 25,696 5.1 8.7 12.6
Lackawanna 213,295 204,673 199,310 194,835 -4.0 -6.6 -8.7
Lancaster 470,658 498,465 526,194 553,293 5.9 11.8 17.6
Lawrence 94,643 89,957 86,145 83,348 -5.0 -9.0 -11.9
Lebanon 120,327 122,409 126,069 131,118 1.7 4.8 9.0
Lehigh 312,090 336,187 361,437 381,738 7.7 15.8 22.3
Luzerne 319,250 306,330 296,621 287,943 -4.0 -7.1 -9.8
Lycoming 120,044 115,866 113,105 109,969 -3.5 -5.8 -8.4
McKean 45,936 43,742 41,592 39,716 -4.8-9.5 -13.5
Mercer 120,293 120,047 121,376 122,967 -0.2 0.9 2.2
Mifflin 46,48646,744 46,421 45,599 0.6 -0.1 -1.9
Monroe 138,687 173,357 208,142 239,824 25.0 50.1 72.9
Montgomery 750,097 813,853 854,994 888,265 8.5 14.0 18.4
Montour 18,236 17,275 16,977 17,038 -5.3 -6.9 -6.6
Northampton 267,066 291,610 316,862 342,081 9.2 18.6 28.1
Northumberland 94,556 93,197 92,861 92,182 -1.4 -1.8 -2.5
Perry 43,602 44,339 45,111 45,638 1.7 3.5 4.7
Philadelphia 1,517,550 1,447,889 1,421,328 1,408,232 -4.6 -6.3 -7.2
Pike 46,302 63,639 80,765 94,374 37.4 74.4 103.8
Potter 18,080 17,760 17,641 17,153-1.8 -2.4 -5.1
Schuylkill 150,336 146,972 146,457 146,078 -2.2 -2.6 -2.8
Snyder 37,546 38,294 39,025 38,955 2.0 3.9 3.8
Somerset 80,023 78,393 77,149 76,298 -2.0 -3.6 -4.7
Sullivan 6,556 6,338 6,313 6,287 -3.3 -3.7 -4.1
Susquehanna 42,238 48,523 61,630 77,530 14.9 45.9 83.6
Tioga 41,373 40,361 39,772 39,680 -2.4 -3.9 -4.1
Union 41,624 46,414 50,018 52,280 11.5 20.2 25.6
Venango 57,565 55,182 52,844 50,205 -4.1 -8.2 -12.8
Warren 43,863 39,425 35,723 32,145 -10.1 -18.6 -26.7
Washington 202,897 206,656 211,288 212,986 1.9 4.1 5.0
Wayne 47,722 52,499 60,607 67,197 10.0 27.0 40.8
Westmoreland 369,993 374,002 380,748 380,588 1.1 2.9 2.9
Wyoming 28,080 26,872 24,010 20,565 -4.3 -14.5 -26.8
York 381,751 416,743 450,887 482,984 9.2 18.1 26.5
Source: Pennsylvania State Data Center

SUE COPELLA,   
Director

[Pa.B. Doc. No. 08-1574. Filed for public inspection August 29, 2008, 9:00 a.m.]


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