THE COURTS
Title 204--JUDICIAL SYSTEM GENERAL PROVISIONS
PENNSYLVANIA COMMISSION ON SENTENCING
Impact of '3-Strikes' Legislation (Act 21 of 1995)
[26 Pa.B. 3530] Act 21 of 1995, referred to as the '3-strikes' legislation, increased the mandatory penalties for certain repeat violent offenders. Act 21 further mandated the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing to provide an impact statement on the projected increases in the prison population as a result of this legislation. This impact analysis was conducted by the Correctional Population Projection Committee, which is comprised of the Lancaster County Prison Warden, the York County Chief Adult Probation Officer along with representatives of the following agencies: Commission on Crime and Delinquency, Commission on Sentencing, Department of Corrections, Board of Probation and Parole, and Office of the Budget. Questions concerning this impact statement should be directed to Doug Hoffman, Chair, at (717) 787-5152., of the Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency.
SENATOR DAVID HECKLER,
ChairImpact Summary: Violent Offense Mandatories--Act 21 of 1995 expands the definition of Act 54 of 1982 to include the offenses of robbery of a motor vehicle and burglary of an occupied dwelling. It also added solicitation or conspiracy to commit any of the designated offenses to the list of offenses for repeat offenders. The act increases the mandatory sentences for second offenses from 5 to 10 years if the presumption that the offender is a ''High Risk Dangerous'' offender has not been rebutted. The act increases mandatory minimum sentences for third and subsequent offenses to 25 years and allows the court to sentence these offenders to life in prison.
Analysis and Assumptions: Consistent with all previous special session bill impact analyses, the Committee assumed that all new sentences would be effective January 1, 1996. For this analysis, the Committee assumed that 90% of the offenders who meet the criteria for the second offense mandatories will be found to be ''High Risk Dangerous'' and receive the 10 year mandatory minimum sentence. The other 10% of second time offenders will receive the mandatory 5 year minimum sentence. For third and subsequent offenders, it was assumed that all offenders who met the criteria would receive at least the 25 year mandatory minimum sentence and that 20% of these offenders would receive a sentence of life imprisonment. While the imposition of these mandatory sentences is currently subject to the discretion of the prosecution, the new criteria and sentence length is expected to affect plea bargains and other sentences by lengthening those sentences. The following tables show the estimated impact of this bill through the year 2005. However, the long sentences, defined as those with minimum sentences of up to 25 years or a life sentence, mean that the maximum impact will not be experienced for 40 years, assuming the average life sentence will be 40 years (average offender age = 32 years). That impact has been included below the projection for the year 2005.
Note: All analyses produced by the Committee unless, stated otherwise, assume only the changes described in the analyzed bill will occur. Total impact of all bills enacted will require a separate analysis. Since a single offender may be affected by more than one bill, simply adding the individual impact estimates will not produce an accurate total impact estimate.
Estimated Impact of Act 21 of 1995 (3-strikes legislation)1 Department of Corrections
Prison Population Under Past Policy Impact of Act 21 of 1995 Act 21 of 1995 1996 35,606 +23 35,629 1997 35,557 +46 35,603 1998 35,132 +76 35,208 1999 34,773 +118 34,891 2000 34,739 +194 34,933 2001 34,742 +328 35,070 2002 34,833 +526 35,359 2003 35,025 +774 35,799 2004 35,345 +1044 36,389 2005 35,741 +1301 37,042 Eventual Impact (40 years) + 3069
Board of Probation and Parole
Impact of Special Session Prison Population Under Past Policy Act 21 of 1995 Act 21 of 1996 1996 22,111 0 22,111 1997 24,711 0 24,711 1998 27,317 -7 27,310 1999 29,709 -26 29,683 2000 31,556 -79 31,477 2001 33,153 -190 32,963 2002 34,675 -365 34,310 2003 36,015 -590 35,425 2004 37,165 -837 36,328 2005 38,070 -1071 36,999 Eventual Impact (40 years) + 2389
Jail Impact -45 within 2 years
[Pa.B. Doc. No. 96-1202. Filed for public inspection July 26, 1996, 9:00 a.m.] _______
1 This assumes that 90 percent of second time offenders are determined to be ''High Risk Dangerous''.
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